UK mortgage rates in the spotlight as economic factors suggest rates could rise again. Hopes that the Bank of England would significantly lower interest rates in 2025, leading to cheaper mortgages, now seem less likely, thanks to global bond market sell-offs and Labour’s Budget leading to a surge in borrowing costs. These factors have unsettled debt markets and contributed to higher interest rate expectations. As a result, borrowers face a more uncertain outlook. As a reminder, the Bank of England opted to hold Bank Rate at 4.75% in December. However, since then, a sharp increase in UK government bond (gilt) yields has pressured rates. Market predictions suggest Bank Rate could fall to 4% by the end of 2025, with some analysts anticipating cuts to as low as 2.75%. However, the volatility in the bond market makes those predictions look optimistic. What can borrowers do? With bond market volatility set to continue, borrowers should seek professional financial advice before making any decisions. A financial adviser can help navigate the complexities of rate changes and determine whether to fix a mortgage deal or wait for lower rates in future. Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported UK house prices increased by an average of £10,000 in the year to October 2024. The report showed the value of a typical home to be an estimated £292,000, an annual increase of 3.4% compared to £282,000 recorded in October 2023.  In England the average house price increased by 3% year-on-year to £309,000. The highest regional increase was in Northern Ireland, where prices rose by 6.2% to £191,000. In Scotland, prices rose by 5.5% to £197,000, while in Wales there was a 4% increase to average house prices to £222,000. However, monthly, property prices fell on average. In London, average property values were £7,000 lower between September and October, taking average prices in the capital down from £531,000 in August to £520,000 in October.

A new survey from the Environment Agency suggests one in four properties in England are in areas at risk of flooding and could become ‘overwhelmed’ from a combination of rivers, the sea or surface water. The Environment Agency surveyed 25 million homes in England to assess their flood risk. It believes 4.6 million properties are in danger of flooding from surface water, an increase of 43% from its previous assessment in 2018. Surface water is rainwater that fails to drain away, either because of heavy rainfall, saturated ground, or overwhelmed drainage systems and leads to flash flooding that can occur in just minutes. While the report suggests 6.3 million homes currently face flooding risks, climate change could increase the total number to around 8 million by 2050.

Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey is confident inflation will fade in 2025, which could mean as many as four interest rate cuts over the year. Bailey told the Financial Times in December that despite recent higher points, he still expected inflation to return to the Bank’s 2.0% target, creating headroom for four 0.25% rate cuts throughout 2025. Bailey noted that while several different inflation scenarios were possible, the latest monetary policy report noted that the Bank would pursue a path of “gradual” interest rate reductions. If his forecast proves correct, it would push Bank Rate down from 4.75% to 3.75% over the next 12 months. What could this mean for mortgage borrowers? For homeowners on tracker mortgages, which track the UK Bank Rate, each rate cut will see their mortgage rate reduced. Mortgage holders with a variable rate mortgage can expect their lenders to cut rates more gradually, with cuts likely to vary from lender to lender and based on a number of different criteria aside from Bank Rate decisions. Anyone with a fixed rate mortgage, but particularly those whose term ends within the next year, will be more hopeful they can refinance at a more comfortable rate. However, it’s worth noting that fixed mortgage rates anticipate interest rate changes, rather than respond to them. This means expected Bank of England rate cuts are already factored into current rate pricing. As a result, the cheapest five-year fixed rates are slightly above 4%, instead of being more closely tied to the Bank Rate. If the market expects rates to drop to 3.75% by the end of 2025, rather than 4.0%, there could be potential for further mortgage rate reductions. What if the Governor’s predictions fall short? Andrew Bailey’s statement highlights that the outlook for the UK economy is still uncertain and while inflation should move closer to target, there are many unknowns that could derail the prospect of four rate cuts this year. It’s also worth noting that despite Bailey’s assertions, market expectations for interest rate cuts have been shifting recently. Before the October Budget, markets expected six to seven rate cuts over the next year, but this dropped to two to three cuts after the Budget, as some measures – including increased borrowing and higher spending commitments – were viewed as inflationary. Given these dynamics, the future trajectory of interest rates remains hard to predict. That said, further positive comments from Andrew Bailey may encourage a downward trend in rates. For those considering fixed-rate options, acting sooner rather than later may be prudent to secure favourable terms. Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage

Have first-time buyers left it too late to pay lower Stamp Duty? It would appear so. At present, first-time buyers pay no Stamp Duty when buying a home worth £425,000. However, from 1 April, Stamp Duty thresholds will return to pre-2022 levels, meaning the tax-free threshold for first-time buyers drops from £425,000 to £300,000, resulting in sharply higher costs. From 1 April, buying a home worth £425,000 will now cost first-timers £6,250 in stamp duty. The new thresholds being introduced include reducing ‘first-time buyers’ relief’ – which lets buyers pay Stamp Duty at a reduced rate – which will be revised from the current £625,000 level back to the pre-2022 level of £500,000. This means the Stamp Duty a first-time buyer can expect to pay on a £625,000 home will rise from £10,000 at present to £21,250, an increase of £11,250. Is there still time to complete before the increase? Any first-time buyers hoping to complete their house purchase before the rises are cutting it close. The average time it takes to complete a house purchase is between 12 and 16 weeks and often takes longer. First-time buyers currently in the process of completing a house purchase should therefore consider making plans to pay Stamp Duty at the higher amount if their completion date is later than 31 March.

Two-thirds (64%) of non-salaried employees who don’t have life cover are worried about being uninsured, a survey* has found. A quarter of this demographic, which includes self-employed individuals, said that they could not afford life insurance. When asked what worried them most about being unprotected, 16% expressed concern that their loved ones would not be able to pay for their funeral. Meanwhile, 14% were anxious about leaving their family with financial burdens and the same proportion were worried about their family’s quality of life. It's important to have peace of mind that your loved ones would be protected in the event of your death. We can help you find affordable cover that suits your needs. As with all insurance policies, conditions and exclusions will apply *Beagle Street, 2024

Life insurance provides vital protection but as your circumstances change, so too should your cover. Here's when to review your life insurance: Marriage Getting married often means having joint financial commitments with your spouse. You might need a higher level of cover to ensure that your partner will be supported if you are no longer around. Parenthood Welcoming a child is a joyful milestone but also a major financial responsibility. It is important to update your cover to safeguard the financial future of your new dependent. Buying a home A new home typically comes with a mortgage, so adjusting your cover can help your family to keep up their lifestyle in the event of your death. Career changes A significant salary increase or a new job often comes with a change in lifestyle, so you may need to reassess your policy to make sure your loved ones could maintain their current standard of living. Similarly, if you reduce your working hours, check your cover still meets your needs. Regularly reviewing your life insurance ensures your loved ones are fully protected as your life evolves. Contact us today to keep your cover on track. As with all insurance policies, conditions and exclusions will apply Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage

Life insurance is a vital safety net, yet misconceptions often prevent people from taking out protection. Here are some common myths: “It’s too expensive” Many believe life insurance is unaffordable, but policies are available for various budgets. Premiums can be surprisingly low, especially if you’re young and healthy. The cost of protection is often far less than the potential financial strain on loved ones left without it. “I don’t need it yet” Life is unpredictable, and delaying could mean higher costs or difficulty obtaining cover later. Securing life insurance early ensures protection is in place when it’s needed most. “It’s too complicated” Navigating life insurance may seem daunting, but you don’t have to do it alone. We can help you understand your options and tailor a policy to suit your family’s needs, ensuring you’re not paying for unnecessary extras. “My employer’s policy is enough” While workplace policies may offer some kind of support, they’re often limited and won’t follow you if you change jobs. It’s worth considering additional cover to fully safeguard your family’s future. Get in touch for a discussion about life cover that ensures your family’s security without breaking the bank. As with all insurance policies, conditions and exclusions will apply.

Home insurance premiums set to stabilise Home insurance premiums are showing signs of stabilising after a period of significant increases, according to new figures*. Premium income for home and motor insurance has been rising sharply in recent years. In 2023 the growth rate was 8.8%, but in 2024 this slowed to an estimated 7.9% and is expected to keep easing in the coming years. Easing pressures Insurers had been grappling with rising claims costs due to inflation, supply chain disruptions and an increase in extreme weather events. However, market conditions have improved thanks to a reduction in interest rates. Premium income growth is therefore predicted to be 5.1% and 4.5% in 2025 and 2026 respectively – significantly closer to the average growth rate of 4% which was recorded between 2010-2019. Market outlook Experts predict that the trend of premium stabilisation will continue into 2025, bringing relief to policyholders who have faced steep hikes over the past two years. This shift may also encourage increased uptake of home insurance as affordability improves. Get covered in 2025 Now is the perfect time to review your cover and ensure your home insurance policy still meets your needs. Contact us for professional advice. As with all insurance policies, conditions and exclusions will apply * EY, 2024